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Published on Monday, October 15, 2018 | Updated on Friday, October 26, 2018

U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. Fourth quarter 2018

The probability of an economic recession within the next 12 months remains low. Alternative models show increasing likelihood but also indicate relatively low probability. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative. However, a sharp correction in equities and corporate spreads is possible. Economic fundamentals for households and financial institutions remain solid.

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