US | Strong job growth over the past two months…

Summary

Signs indicate a gradual slowdown/normalization of the labor market, with NIFB survey trends suggesting no acceleration in employment, alongside lower Job openings and quits indicating slower wage growth.

Key points

• Key points:
• Strong job growth was observed over the past two months, with 353K jobs created in January, though still below last January's figures.
• Despite recent revisions, job creation slowed in 2023, growing 2.0% YoY with 3 million new jobs, significantly lower than in 2022.
• The unemployment rate remains steady at 3.7%, but the labor force decline affects it; the labor participation rate remains mostly unchanged at 62.5% throughout 2023.
• Higher productivity may contribute to keeping wage growth restrained despite low unemployment levels and strong job creation.
• Expectation of the labor market to find a better balance with more moderate economic growth, leading to somewhat higher unemployment levels.

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