Publications

The Peruvian economy grew 3,5 % in the first quarter, above expectations, backed by private spending. The Middle East conflict, weather anomalies, and the election result will shape its performance going forward. In the baseline scenario, it will grow 3,1 % in 2026 and 3,5 % in 2027, once supply shocks fade away.

The Board of Banrep reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps, bringing it to 9.50%. This decision was split: 5 members in favor of the 25 bp reduction, one in favor of a 50 bp reduction and one in favor of a 75 bp reduction. This is an important change in the Board's stance, after 6 meetings with rate cuts of 50bp.

The Consumer Price Index for the city of Lima increased 0.96% MoM in April. This is a result of the increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages and transportation, in a context of higher international prices of foodstuffs and fuels.

The Board of the Central Bank decided to increase the monetary policy rate from 4.00% to 4.50% in April. The Bank now expects inflation to return to the target range between the second and third quarter of next year.

Last week we launched our latest revision of forecasts for the global economy and the local economy. Colombia will be able to consolidate its growth in this challenging scenario during 2019. The outlook shows inflation staying very close to the target next year and the following year, and a central bank that can start changing its monetary stance.