BBVA Research

The document summarizes the presentation delivered at the European Investment Bank (EIB) on European defense spending, analyzed from a geopolitical perspective and from an economic standpoint, presenting the estimated fiscal multipliers of defense expenditure for Europe (García-Serrador, Sarasa-Flores, and Ulloa, 2025).

This edition of the QLMO analyzes labor market trends using data available through Q2 2025. It reviews the performance of key aggregate indicators and explores recent developments in the duration of employment relationships.

The increase in total tourist spending with cards by Spaniards and foreigners slowed during the second four-month period of 2025, standing at 5.7% y/y (4.5 pp less than in the previous period), in a context of rising prices.

In August, Social Security lost 199,300 contributors and unemployment rose by 21,900 due to seasonal factors. Once seasonally adjusted (SA), the number of contributors increased by 29,900 and the number of unemployed fell by 4,800. The share of temporary contracts in the General Regime stood at 13.7% (SA).

The Lima Consumer Price Index (CPI) contracted 0.29% in August 2025, surprising the consensus of analysts. Year-on-year inflation fell to 1.1%, close to the lower limit of the Central Bank's target range. Inflation excluding food and energy rose slightly to 1.8%.

Private consumption has become Colombia’s key growth engine. Driven by employment, income, credit, and remittances, it is shifting toward services and entertainment, while demographic changes reshape household spending patterns for the years ahead.

The trade surplus in 2Q25 is mainly due to the positive balance on non-oil-related goods, which in the second quarter of 2025 was USD 8,893 million after having posted a surplus of USD 4,730 million in the first quarter.

The sensitivity on growth and employment might continue to shape the policy mix with a trade-off of a slower disinflation path. We expect the Medium Term Program (MTP), to be revised in early September, to have more color on the political preferences on near term growth outlook.

After the dissolution of Coneval, Inegi has assumed responsibility for measuring poverty and for the comprehensive evaluation of Mexico’s social development policy. This note analyzes the results of Inegi’s first 2024 multidimensional poverty report.