BBVA Research

The BBVA Research Multidimensional Manufacturing Indicator grew 3.5% YoY in July, slowing compared with the previous month. The sector’s weaker momentum comes amid a slowdown in U.S. private spending, suggesting a cooling of manufacturing activity in the second half of 2026.

The total solar eclipse on August 12 boosted spending by foreign tourists in Spain—particularly in provinces where the phenomenon was most visible—suggesting a shift in tourism toward key viewing destinations. In contrast, spending by domestic travelers was not significantly affected.

In June 2026, bank deposits and lending in Mexico showed greater momentum, driven by time deposits and consumer credit. Growth in outstanding credit recorded its highest rate of the year (3.0% in real annual terms), while deposit growth accelerated to 3.1% in real annual terms.

In spite of the conflict, 2Q26 growth could surprise to the upside relative to our previous forecast as our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts 3.0% y/y growth for 2Q26, indicating a quarterly growth of around 1.0–1.5%. We keep our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.0%, with geopolitical tension as the key downside risk.