BBVA Research

The EU-Mercosur agreement presents a favorable scenario for growth, investment, and trade. Spain maintains a strategic link that sits above the European average, driven by business investment and the supply of key inputs.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.7% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 50.4% in March 2026. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.7% by year-end.

The automotive market recovered supported by improved affordability, credit conditions, and lower exchange rate distortions. However, local production and the external sector still face structural constraints, limiting the sustainability of growth over the medium term.

Mexico’s economy grew just 0.6% in 2025. A 1.3% drop in secondary activities was partly offset by gains in the primary sector (4.2%) and services (1.5%). The report analyzes the 46.8% surge in computer and electronics exports and the 13 Economic Development Poles (Polos de Desarrollo Económico para el Bienestar).