BBVA Research

Growth is likely to be stronger than previously expected in 2026 and weaker in 2027, but should remain close to 2%. Higher inflation, around 5% in 2H26, driven mainly by the global energy shock, will constrain the scope for further monetary easing, although additional Selic cuts remain likely.

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain solid growth above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by employment, private consumption, services exports, and the housing sector. However, a weaker external environment, inflation, higher interest rates, and structural challenges will constrain part of its growth potential.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a year-on-year growth of 9.4% in April, lower than the rate observed in the previous month (March: 13.1%). This moderation occurred in a context where household purchasing power continued to be affected by the significant increase in consumer prices.

The national unemployment rate remained at 8.8% in April 2026, interrupting the downward trend observed since 2025. This result responded to proportional increases in both the employment rate and the overall participation rate. Thus, job creation continued to be dynamic, with an annual growth of 3.0%.

Social Security affiliation increased by 232,000 people, and unemployment fell by 36,300. Adjusted for seasonality, it is estimated that employment reached 57,000 contributors, but unemployment grew by 2,300. Significant effects from the extraordinary immigrant regularization process are not yet noticeable.

The Banco de México updated the remittance data received by the country in 2024-2026. The largest adjustment was made for 2025, with an increase of USD 695 million. The correlation coefficients of remittances to Mexico were analyzed in relation to 6 major remittance-receiving countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.

In this edition of the QLMO, we assess recent labour market developments using the information available through Q1 2026. We review the main aggregate indicators and explore a number of issues related to working conditions, immigration, and youth emancipation.

Recent economic slowdown has already weighed on the internal sources of financing as retirement savings gain greater relevance. These resources have been allocated mainly to the public sector and households, particularly through banking credit.

Tourism maintained solid growth in the first four months of 2026, although with some moderation compared to the end of 2025. Total tourist spending grew by 4.7% year-on-year, driven especially by foreign tourism and the dynamism of destinations in the north and interior of the peninsula.

The Colombian automotive sector experienced a strong recovery in 2025 and has further accelerated its momentum in 2026. Growth has been driven by improved household consumption, the rise of utility vehicles, and the advancement of hybrid and electric technologies.

Mexico’s economy grew just 0.6% in 2025. A 1.3% drop in secondary activities was partly offset by gains in the primary sector (4.2%) and services (1.5%). The report analyzes the 46.8% surge in computer and electronics exports and the 13 Economic Development Poles (Polos de Desarrollo Económico para el Bienestar).