BBVA Research

Argentina's real estate market recovered in 2025, driven by mortgage credit and wage growth. Construction remained sluggish. The 2026 outlook offers regional opportunities requiring strategic caution.

At the end of 2025, the decree enacting the new General Water Law and amending the 1992 National Waters Law was published. These changes stem from campaign commitments made by President Claudia Sheinbaum and from the National Water Plan presented in November 2024. The key points are analyzed below.

Las medidas geoeconómicas de EEUU como barreras comerciales, sanciones y tarifas, junto con los importantes acontecimientos geopolíticos que se han producido a lo largo del año 2025, han provocado un fuerte aumento de la incertidumbre en materia de política económica y de las medidas de aversión al riesgo a nivel mundial

Despite rising protectionism, global trade remains resilient, more consistent with a reallocation of trade flows than with a deglobalization scenario. International commerce has been supported by the ongoing AI boom, robust demand, and a weaker US dollar (which generally supports global trade).

We estimate market-implied recession probabilities using logit models on daily financial variables across asset classes in the US and Euro Area. The results show strong forecasting power, often leading official recessions, and helps identify markets under stress, with deviations mainly driven by policy interventions.

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.6% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 52.0% in 2024. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.9% by year-end.