BBVA Research

The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025 driven by exports, despite weak domestic demand and the real estate crash. 4.5% growth is expected for 2026, supported by stimuli and measures against industrial overcapacity. Reflation narrative is on the rise amid the Iran war.

GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.8% in 2025, and the expansion is expected to continue, with growth of 2.4% in both 2026 and 2027. The outlook remains favourable, although structural challenges persist in a more uncertain international environment than three months ago.

GDP is forecast to remain close to 2%, while inflation is expected to hover around 4% ahead, following a marked deceleration in activity throughout 2025. As a net oil exporter, Brazil has limited exposure to the conflict in the Middle East, but it could still be negatively affected if tensions persist beyond a few weeks.

The Colombian economy will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, in a slowdown environment. The recovery is conditioned by macroeconomic imbalances, persistent rising inflation and high interest rates, making the promotion of private investment vital.

Geopolitical crises do not automatically trigger energy transitions. They accelerate diversification only when economically viable and scalable substitutes already exist. Price spikes alone are insufficient; transition dynamics are shaped by shifts in perceived supply risk, technological readiness, and policy responses.

This analysis calculates the proximity (in km) of economic units in Mexico to commercial banking units (branches, ATMs, etc.), using georeferenced information as an indicator of "access" to financial products and services for the financial inclusion of establishments and businesses.