BBVA Research

The observatory analyzes the cyclical evolution of the Spanish economy and housing prices in 2025. GDP closed the year with solid growth (2.8%), supported by domestic demand (contributed 3.6 pp to growth), while the labor market remained strong. The rise in the relative price of housing stands out in the current cycle.

Public deficit fell to 2.4% of GDP in 2025, in line with expectations, supported by strong revenue growth and temporary factors. Under a no-policy-change scenario, the deficit is expected to decline to 2.3% of GDP in 2026 and stand at 2.4% by the end of 2027.

The Turkish economy grew by 3.6% in 2025, while the disinflation process was maintained. 2026 is set to be a challenging year, with downside risks stemming in particular from the recent Middle East conflict; however, a well-calibrated policy mix could help mitigate these risks.

Argentina enters 2026 with further progress in macroeconomic stabilization, supported by fiscal balance, prudent monetary policy and greater FX flexibility. Growth is expected to be moderate, inflation to decline, and the recovery to remain uneven, with challenges in employment, reserves and policy sustainability.

Argentina's real estate market recovered in 2025, driven by mortgage credit and wage growth. Construction remained sluggish. The 2026 outlook offers regional opportunities requiring strategic caution.