BBVA Research

Public deficit fell to 2.4% of GDP in 2025, in line with expectations, supported by strong revenue growth and temporary factors. Under a no-policy-change scenario, the deficit is expected to decline to 2.3% of GDP in 2026 and stand at 2.4% by the end of 2027.

Construction GDP decreased by 1.0% in 2025. The mortgage market shrank by 2.9% in loan amount, explained by the decrease in banking activity and despite the growth of Infonavit.

Argentina enters 2026 with further progress in macroeconomic stabilization, supported by fiscal balance, prudent monetary policy and greater FX flexibility. Growth is expected to be moderate, inflation to decline, and the recovery to remain uneven, with challenges in employment, reserves and policy sustainability.

The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2025 driven by exports, despite weak domestic demand and the real estate crash. 4.5% growth is expected for 2026, supported by stimuli and measures against industrial overcapacity. Reflation narrative is on the rise amid the Iran war.

Argentina's real estate market recovered in 2025, driven by mortgage credit and wage growth. Construction remained sluggish. The 2026 outlook offers regional opportunities requiring strategic caution.