BBVA Research

Social Security affiliation fell by 162,800 people and unemployment grew by 44,400. Adjusted for seasonality, an estimated rebound of 74,000 contributors and 10,500 unemployed is estimated. The extraordinary regularization of immigrants may have added 211,000 foreign affiliates and 64,900 unemployed up to August.

Despite these gains, remittances declined by 6.5% in real terms in July, due to inflation and, primarily, the depreciation of the US dollar. Since reaching their peak in July 2022, remittances to Mexico have fallen by 24.8% in real terms, negatively affecting the income of recipient households over the past four years.

The national unemployment rate stood at 8.1% in July, down from 8.8% a year earlier and its lowest level for the month since 2001. The decline was driven by higher employment, which more than offset the increase in labor force participation.

The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% y/y in 2Q26, below both our expectation (3%) and market consensus (2.9%), bringing growth in 1H26 to 2.5% y/y. Assuming a prudent policy mix going forward and no further escalation in geopolitical tensions, we maintain our 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2026 with limited downside risks now.

The total solar eclipse on August 12 boosted spending by foreign tourists in Spain—particularly in provinces where the phenomenon was most visible—suggesting a shift in tourism toward key viewing destinations. In contrast, spending by domestic travelers was not significantly affected.

In June 2026, bank deposits and lending in Mexico showed greater momentum, driven by time deposits and consumer credit. Growth in outstanding credit recorded its highest rate of the year (3.0% in real annual terms), while deposit growth accelerated to 3.1% in real annual terms.

Argentina is in a new phase of its energy development, with record oil and gas production driven by unconventional resources from Vaca Muerta. However, the main challenge is to overcome infrastructure bottlenecks to capitalize on its export potential.