BBVA Research

Inflation in Peru accelerated in October to 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding the target range for the eighth consecutive month. The rise was mainly due to supply shocks in food and transport. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also rose, reaching 4.6%.

GDP grew 0.9% QoQ in 3Q26, with signs of stronger momentum in industry and wholesale trade. We introduce an upside bias to our growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

In August 2026, bank deposits and outstanding credit to the non-financial private sector (NFPS) saw an acceleration in growth, influenced by the entry of digital banks. Credit extended via credit cards stood out for its dynamism, while demand deposits underpinned traditional deposits growth.

BBVA Research forecasts growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Extending the business-cycle decomposition through end-2026 points to a slowing expansion: demand and credit offset supply-side constraints, while weak productivity limits convergence with the EU8.

Exports are set to reach a record high in 2026, consolidating their role as a key driver of economic activity and supporting exchange rate stability. The country is expected to achieve three consecutive years of growth by 2027, amid declining but persistent inflation and highly uneven sectoral performance.

GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in both 2026 and 2027. Despite the effects that El Niño is already having on growth, private investment and non-extractive sectors will continue to support economic activity. A strong rebound is expected in 2028.

El Niño 2026–27 could be exceptional, but its impact will not depend on intensity alone: local climate conditions, timing, and sectoral exposure will be key. Granular analysis can help anticipate risks, while adaptation can mitigate their effects

Argentina establishes itself as a key player in the global agricultural market, excelling in the production of soybeans, corn, wheat, and sunflower. The sector is a crucial source of foreign currency, with agricultural complexes projected to contribute 42% of the country's total exports in 2026.