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Published on Wednesday, January 10, 2018 | Updated on Sunday, May 13, 2018

China | From great miracle to great moderation: potential GDP estimation of China

Summary

In the recently concluded 19th Party’s National Congress, the authorities have come up with a two-stage development plan. Using traditional Cobb-Douglas production function to gauge China’s potential GDP, we found China’s per capita GDP can increase to USD 21,000 (constant price of today) by 2035, in line with the authorities’ target of achieving “social modernization”.

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201801_China_Great-moderation_final-revision_AO-3_edited

English - January 10, 2018

Authors

Jinyue Dong
Jinyue Dong Principal economist for China
BBVA Research
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Alvaro Ortiz
Alvaro Ortiz Head of Economic Analysis with Big Data & AI
BBVA Research
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Le Xia
Le Xia Chief economist for China
BBVA Research
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