Colombia | Inflation continues to accelerate in January, reaching 13.2%

Summary

Inflation in January continued to accelerate, reaching an annual change of 13.2% and a monthly change of 1.78%. The figure was slightly higher than expected by the average of analysts in the Banco de la República's survey (1.61%).

Key points

• Key points:
• Food inflation shows a deceleration in its annual change for the first time since May 2022, from 27.8% in December to 26.2% in January. However, part of this is explained by base effects, mainly seen in perishable goods, which decelerated by about 400 bps as a result.
• Core inflation took the lead for the first time in a long time, with an acceleration of 44 bps compared to the previous month, reaching an annual change of 10.4%. Within this, an acceleration of regulated goods and services stands out, driven by increases in transport, fuel, administration and electricity.
• The basket of goods shows the largest deceleration in the annual comparison, however, this is again explained as a result of a base effect, where pressures in vehicles, household cleaning products and beer continue to be relevant.
• BBVA Research expects inflation to start to moderate in the second quarter of 2023 and to decelerate further in the second half of the year, driven in the first case by lower pressures in the food basket and in the second by a slower dynamic of the local economy.

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