Colombia | Inflation moderates in June, standing at 4.8%

Summary

Colombia's annual inflation for June 2025 stood at 4.8%, with a monthly variation of 0.10%, lower than the 0.19% expected by analysts. This marks the first time it has been below 5.0% since October 2021. The moderation was explained by the food and regulated items baskets.

Key points

• Key points:
• Regulated items inflation showed a significant reduction of 82 basis points to 5.5% annually, thanks in particular to a 1.9% monthly drop in energy prices, leading to an annual variation of -4.8%.
• In contrast, services showed a marginal adjustment, with an annual inflation of 6.0% (only 6 basis points less than the previous month), although within this category, rents, the main component, saw a 15-basis-point decrease.
• Moving against the general trend, goods inflation accelerated for the fifth consecutive month, reaching 1.6% annually. This behavior, with pressures on vehicles and electronic devices, could reflect the effect of the peso's depreciation in late 2024 and early 2025, along with some improvement in the demand for these goods.
• Although the overall result opens the door for a possible policy interest rate reduction in July, annual inflation excluding food and regulated items, a key measure for the Central Bank, remained stable at 4.8%. This stability could be used as an argument to maintain a cautious and gradual stance in the cutting cycle.
• The June data was a downside surprise for analysts, as the annual figure of 4.82% is very similar to their projection for the end of 2025. This could lead to a downward revision of inflation forecasts in subsequent surveys.

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