Colombia | The Colombian economy grew 2.7% in the first quarter of 2025

Summary

Colombia’s economy grew 2.7% y/y in Q1 2025, led by household consumption. Investment weakened and sectors showed mixed results. Growth is projected at around 2.5% in 2025, with resilient domestic demand but ongoing challenges in investment and the external environment.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP growth in the first quarter was accompanied by a favorable quarterly pace, confirming a trend of gradual recovery. While household consumption was the main driver, public spending also contributed to the quarter’s performance.
• The ISE rose 4.5% YoY in March, driven by commerce, agriculture, and entertainment. However, activity fell 0.9% MoM, revealing uneven performance. Mining, construction, and energy remained sluggish compared to more dynamic sectors.
• Domestic demand grew 4.6% YoY, led by private consumption (+3.8%), especially in durable and semi-durable goods. Public spending also contributed. Fixed investment rose just 1.8%, driven by machinery and equipment but weighed down by housing and construction.
• By sector, agriculture led with 7.1% YoY growth, followed by services, particularly entertainment and transport. Industry grew 1.4% after several quarters of contraction. Mining and construction continued to decline, still below pre-pandemic levels.
• BBVA Research forecasts GDP growth of around 2.5% in 2025, with domestic demand as the main driver. Consumption should remain strong, but investment will depend on business confidence. Global uncertainty may weigh on exports and drive further import growth.

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