Mexico | Consumption extends its slowdown into March

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator fell (-)0.6% MoM (real, sa) in March, marking its third consecutive decline in 2026.

Key points

• Key points:
• Within services, hotels and restaurants showed weakness (-4.6% and -1.7% MoM, respectively), with YoY declines of (-)12.2% and (-)8.4%, respectively.
• Spending on entertainment rebounded (10.4% MoM), while goods consumption remained weak: food (-0.4% MoM) and health-related goods were virtually flat (0.1% MoM).
• By channel, online spending rose 0.7% MoM after two consecutive declines, while brick-and-mortar spending was unchanged; both posted YoY contractions.
• Looking ahead, we expect a temporary boost in 2Q26 driven by the World Cup; however, in 2H26 consumption could face headwinds if global uncertainty persists, affecting domestic demand, real wage bill growth, and household expectations.

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