Mexico | Manufacturing closes 1Q26 with signs of deceleration

Summary

The BBVA Research Manufacturing Multidimensional Indicator grew 2.2% YoY in March, remaining in positive territory for the seventh consecutive month, although deepening the slowdown observed since the beginning of the year.

Key points

• Key points:
• External demand continues to support the sector, although signs of weaker momentum in U.S. manufacturing (-0.1% MoM in March) and higher energy input costs have put pressure on production margins.
• Business caution stemming from a prolonged environment of uncertainty could delay investment decisions, reinforcing a more moderate growth pattern during the second quarter of the year.
• Regarding capacity utilization, as of January, seventeen of the twenty-one subsectors were below their January 2025 levels (vs fifteen the previous month).
• Looking ahead, we estimate that demand associated with artificial intelligence investment in the U.S. will continue to support certain manufacturing segments, although with more limited growth, a more heterogeneous composition across subsectors, and lower cyclical momentum.

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