Mexico | Private spending kicks off 2Q26 on a weak note

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a 0.4% MoM drop (real, sa) in April, its fourth consecutive decline so far this year, recording an average YoY variation of -2.7% for the January-April 2026 period.

Key points

• Key points:
• The sluggishness in private spending stems from the erosion of disposable income caused by the spike in food inflation, as well as the slow growth of remittances and the cooling of the labor market.
• Spending on services contracted 0.9% MoM during the month (accumulating a 6.5% YoY drop as of April), while goods consumption fell 0.5% MoM (registering a cumulative contraction of 0.7% YoY).
• Gasoline spending (as a mobility proxy) fell 0.2% MoM, with a YoY variation of -4.5%, amounting to a cumulative loss of 8.4% for the year (YoY).
• We anticipate that the deceleration trend will persist amid weakening domestic demand and prolonged uncertainty; although we project a temporary rebound in the June-July period catalyzed by the World Cup, the effect will be temporary and will lack the magnitude to offset the accumulated deterioration.

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