Mexico | Private Spending Regains Ground in October, Driven by Services

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator reported a 1.8% MoM increase in October, boosted by a strong performance in the services segment (+5.9% MoM).

Key points

• Key points:
• The relative improvement in consumption is taking place in a context of resilience in the services sector, as suggested by IGAE data, which show 1.1% YoY cumulative growth in the tertiary sector during the first eight months of the year — 2.5 pp above the variation observed in the industrial sector over the same period.
• Regarding consumption by type of establishment, online spending rose 19.9% MoM, the highest monthly variation since December 2024, while in-store spending continued to slow, growing only 0.2% MoM.
• In year-over-year terms, spending on gasoline has averaged a 5.0% decline so far this year, 14.2 pp below the figure recorded during the same period last year.
• We expect private spending to recover progressively through 2026, in line with the gradual improvement in the real wage bill and the continued dynamism of the services sector; other components of aggregate demand, particularly investment, would follow a slower recovery path.

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