Mexico | Public underspending favors balance in 1Q26

Summary

The Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (HBPSBR) was 52.7% of GDP at the end of 2025 vs. 50.4% in March 2026. We expect the HBPSBR to be around 53.7% by year-end.

Key points

• Key points:
• The HBPSBR was lower than in 2025 because the domestic and foreign components of debt showed a decrease of 1.8 and 0.5 percentage points of GDP, respectively.
• Oil revenues contributed to total revenue being lower by MXN 79,509 million than the program's target for 1Q26.

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