November PMIs point to a further growth slow-down

Summary

China’s official PMI (released by NBS) for November came in at 50.3 (versus consensus: 50.5), down from 50.8 in October. It registered an eight-month low although its shows that the economy still remained in an expansion territory (Figure 1). In the meantime, the HSBC China Final Manufacturing PMI, which was also released today, declined to the watershed level of 50.0, down from the October final reading 50.4. Taken together, manufacturing activities have further slowed the pace in November amidst of intensified growth headwinds. Nevertheless, as the authorities have beefed up their efforts of monetary easing, which is mirrored by the PBoC’s unanticipated interest rate cut on November 21th, growth can be sustained at around 7.2% in the fourth quarter, making our full-year growth rate of 7.3% still achievable.

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