Published on Monday, January 16, 2023

Peru | Economic activity continues to show signs of weakness

GDP grew 1.7% year-on-year in November. A somewhat lower figure than the previous month due to lower landings of anchovy. The non-primary component of GDP continued to lose dynamism in a context with less favourable conditions for private spending.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Despite the improved performance of mining activity, supported by Quellaveco's copper production, GDP registered a moderation in its primary component. This is explained by the lower landings of anchovy, which affected not only the fishing sector but also primary manufacturing.
  • On the other hand, the non-primary component of GDP continues to lose dynamism in a context in which the positive impact of the post-COVID rebound is diminishing and in which conditions for private spending are less favourable.
  • Taking into account the November GDP print (somewhat lower than that of our baseline scenario), the impact of the social protests in December, and the leading activity indicators available for that same month, our 2.7% growth forecast for the year 2022 as a whole acquires a downward bias.

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