Published on Thursday, March 12, 2026 | Updated on Thursday, March 12, 2026

Peru Economic Outlook – March 2026

Summary

The Peruvian economy keeps showing a solid performance, supported by the dynamism of private spending. Recently, however, three negative supply shocks have affected it, driving down the output growth forecast for 2026 from 3,1 % to 2,9 %. In 2027, the supply shocks will have dissipated and GDP will grow by 3,1 %.

Key points

Key points:
The external environment remains positive for Peru. The Middle East conflict represents a new challenge for the global economy, but in the base scenario it is expected to be brief and to have a limited macroeconomic impact. In this context, terms of trade will remain at high levels, exceeding those forecasted three months ago.
Locally, two additional supply shocks are affecting the Peruvian economy: the deterioration of weather conditions, with anomalies expected to persist for most of the year, and the domestic gas supply squeeze, relatively brief but with a sharp impact in 2026. On balance, together with external conditions, these shocks lead to a downward revision of the 2026 output growth forecast from 3,1 % to 2,9 %.
The fiscal deficit went down in 2025, but this reduction is not expected to repeat over the next two years when higher spending on public sector wages in 2026 and purchases of military equipment are now considered. Legislative initiatives that increase public spending and the recurring losses of the state-owned oil company remain persistent risks.
The domestic currency, which in recent weeks changed trend, weakening abruptly and sharply against the dollar amid the conflict in the Middle East, will benefit from high terms of trade and will tend again to appreciate after the general elections (2Q26). The exchange rate is expected to close this year between 3,25 and 3,35 soles per dollar.
The negative supply shocks currently affecting the Peruvian economy are not only weakening economic activity but are also having a temporary upward impact on inflation, especially in the short term. In this environment, the Central Bank will not make changes to the monetary policy interest rate, currently at 4,25 %.