Peru | July Growth Surprised to the Upside

Summary

GDP grew 3.4% year-on-year in July, above market consensus (3.0%) but below June’s pace. The primary component expanded by about 5.0%, while the non-primary component grew around 3.0%.

Key points

• Key points:
• Primary GDP (+4.9%): driven by agriculture (+8.5%), fishing (+34.9% due to higher anchovy landings), and metallic mining (+1.9%: copper +2.0%, gold +7.5%).
• Non-primary GDP (+2.7%): led by construction (+5.0%) and non-primary manufacturing (capital goods).
• August 2025: the available indicators point to slower growth compared to the previous month.
• Outlook: with July’s data, cumulative growth stands at 3.65%. In the coming months, a moderation is expected due to a higher comparison base (partly from private pension withdrawals in 2024), weaker public investment, and greater caution in private spending ahead of the elections. In this context, we estimate the economy will grow between 2.5% and 3.0% in the second half of the year, closing 2025 with an expansion of 3.1%.

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