Peru | March data confirms that GDP grew by nearly 4% in the first quarter

Summary

In March 2025, GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year. The primary component expanded by 4.9%, driven by the fishing and construction sectors. The non-primary component rose by 4.3%, supported by non-primary manufacturing, construction, and some service segments.

Key points

• Key points:
• In the sequential analysis, based on the seasonally adjusted GDP published by INEI, output contracted by 0.1% in March compared to the level reached in February. As a result, the carry-over to March this year stood at 2.3%, assuming the current adjusted level remains constant for the rest of the year and is compared to the previous year's annual average.
• The available activity indicators for April 2025 suggest a lower year-on-year growth compared to the previous month. The base effect was negative, as Easter was celebrated in April this year, unlike in 2024 when the holiday took place in March.
• The available activity indicators for April 2025 suggest a lower year-on-year growth compared to the previous month. The base effect was therefore negative, as Easter was celebrated in April this year, unlike in 2024 when the holiday occurred in March.
• GDP growth in March is consistent with the economic performance anticipated in our baseline scenario. For the second quarter, we continue to estimate an expansion of around 3.5%, and for the full year, 3.1%. It is worth noting that the international environment remains uncertain, due to ongoing trade policies in major economies and their potential impacts, which pose a risk to economic activity in the coming months.

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