Spain | Navarre Economic Outlook 2025

Summary

In 2025, Navarre's GDP could grow by 2.4%, and this growth is expected to continue in 2026. Looking ahead, economic activity will be marked by high uncertainty surrounding economic and trade policy and the slow recovery in Europe.

Key points

• Key points:
• The increase in regional membership is below the national average. The city of Pamplona shows solid growth, although this does not compensate for the weakness in other areas.
• The positive performance of public employment, tourism service exports, and private consumption is supporting growth. However, goods exports and industrial production, key drivers of the regional economy, are performing poorly, explaining why growth is below the national average.
• Among the factors that will support growth are falling oil and gas prices; a more expansionary economic policy stance in Europe; and greater growth capacity in the service sector (due to immigration and increases in hourly productivity).
• Risks to growth persist due to economic policy uncertainty in the US, tourism restrictions, structural changes in the automotive sector, housing and labor shortages, and the need for agreements on regional debt.
• By the end of 2026, GDP could be 11 points higher than in 2019 (13pp in Spain). If these forecasts are accurate, the unemployment rate could fall to an average of 16.9% in 2026, and 12,100 new jobs could be created in the 2025-2026 period.

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