Publications

Growth remains solid, but in a context of deceleration. In 2025, services exports remain the main growth driver. In 2026, the impact of tariffs and the slowdown in non-resident consumption will lead to a moderation in growth.

Tourism and consumption continue to drive growth toward the Mediterranean and the islands in 2025, but the prospect of a slowdown persists toward 2026 in a context of high uncertainty that delays the acceleration of export-producing regions.

GDP could increase by 2.5% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Next year, Navarra's GDP could exceed pre-crisis GDP by 7%. Unemployment may fall to 7,4% in 2025.

In 2024, prospects will improve, with service exporting communities benefiting most, while stagnant exports limit the progress of many industrial regions. In 2025, growth moderates and shifts to areas with less tourism weight.

In 2024, the Spanish economy presents a heterogeneous outlook, with different autonomous communities showing significant variations in their growth prospects. In this quarter's BBVA Research Regional Economic Outlook report we explore the most relevant economic trends and challenges for this year and next.

In 2024, strength of employment and services exports, maintain dynamism in Madrid, the Mediterranean and the islands. In 2025, tourism will lose momentum. Higher European demand and the end of the drought will shift growth to regions with more industrial and agricultural relevance.

GDP growth in 2024 is revised downwards for all peninsular regions. Greater corrections in the northern regions, but they will lead growth in 2024. In 2025, a general acceleration due to the improvement in domestic consumption and European demand: advantage for national tourism recipients.

BBVA Research forecasts a 1.9% growth in Navarre's GDP in 2023. Although the forward scenario deteriorates, the recovery may continue, with GDP expected to grow by 2.2% in 2024. 8,500 jobs could be created in the 2023-2024 biennium.