Spain | Real Estate Sector Outlook and Profitability. March 2026

Summary

Housing demand in Spain will remain solid driven by employment, wages, and immigration. However, the shortage of new supply will limit sales and maintain strong upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, the profitability of the construction sector remains low compared to Europe.

Key points

• Key points:
• The annual net migration of 550,000 people will keep household creation close to 200,000 units, vastly exceeding housing production.
• Forecasts point to a 1.6% drop in sales in 2026 and a slight 1.1% advance in 2027, strictly conditioned by the lack of finished product.
• Housing prices will grow strongly, with estimates of a 10.2% rebound for 2026 and a subsequent moderation to 6.8% during 2027.
• New building visas will increase by 12.5% on average in the biennium, reaching some 160,000 annual units, but the accumulated deficit will hover around 800,000 homes in 2027.
• The return on equity (ROE) of building construction improved slightly to 4.1% in 2024, standing 12.5 percentage points below the historical sector average for France and Germany.

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