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Published on Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2022

The control of the pandemic, the return of foreign tourism, the arrival of European funds and the progressive elimination of bottlenecks to production mark the regional scenario. Tourist communities will grow more, but those in the north will also achieve historically high numbers.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • The growth forecasts for 2021 are maintained in most of the Autonomous Communities. The Balearic Islands, due to the negative surprise in growth in 2020, is the only community that is revised upwards.
  • The scenario is maintained for 2022. The recovery of foreign and urban tourism will be a differential factor for the growth of the islands, Madrid and Catalonia, which will be in the leading group.
  • The progressive elimination of bottlenecks, the normalization of international trade and the greater activation of NGEU funds will allow a historically high growth also in the northern and central Autonomous Communities, although lower than the national average.
  • In 2023, the economy will progressively slow down with the return to normality. The acceleration in the use of European funds will boost the Autonomous Communities of the south and west more, due to the greater relevance of the action of the public sector, while the slowdown in European demand will affect the communities of the North of Spain to a greater extent and from the Ebro valley, to Catalonia, with greater weight of its export activity.
  • The normalization of urban tourism will continue to favor Madrid in the next two years.

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