Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. January 2026

Summary

Between 2025 and 2027, regional growth will increasingly rely on domestic demand. In 2025, service-oriented regions stand out; in 2026, consumption and investment will gain prominence, and in 2027, industry and exports in the northern regions will become more relevant.

Key points

• Key points:
• In 2025, regional growth remains solid but more heterogeneous, shaped by weak goods exports and a gradual slowdown in tourism. Regions more oriented toward consumption and services such as Madrid, the Mediterranean areas and the islands lead growth, while several industrial regions expand in line with or below the national average.
• In 2026, the transition toward a growth pattern more dependent on domestic demand will consolidate, with private consumption and investment—particularly in housing and high value-added services—as the main drivers. Madrid and the Mediterranean regions are expected to grow above average, while regions more reliant on tourism and the automotive industry will face greater moderation.
• In 2027, the recovery of European demand and investment impulses could benefit goods-exporting regions, particularly in the north, while economies more closely linked to domestic consumption and tourism are likely to post more moderate growth in a context of cyclical normalization.
• Throughout the 2025–2027 period, regional growth will continue to be shaped by structural challenges such as housing shortages, labor market tensions, productivity trends, and fiscal consolidation, with uneven effects on the growth capacity of Spain’s autonomous communities.

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