Spain | Regional Economic Outlook. March 2026

Summary

Economic activity relies more on domestic demand and services, and with greater external risks, leading to growing divergences between regions.

Key points

• Key points:
• National average growth remains at around 2.4% in 2026–2027, with an increasingly domestically driven pattern, although with differentiated impacts across autonomous communities.
• Tourism and services-oriented regions (the islands, the Mediterranean coast, and Madrid) lead growth in 2026, benefiting from non-resident consumption and the dynamism of non-tourism services.
• The northern communities, which are more industrial and export-oriented, could show less momentum this year, affected by rising energy costs, European weakness, and increasing tariffs.
• In 2027, some recomposition of regional growth could occur, with a relative recovery of industrial regions if European demand and investment improve.
• Structural bottlenecks with uneven territorial impact persist, particularly in housing, productivity, and the labour market, constraining growth in the most dynamic regions.

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