Published on Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The economic cost of the political blockade

Spain is heading for its fourth general election in four years. The Spanish economy has slowed during this period, with GDP growth falling from 4% at the end of 2015 to 2.1% in the second quarter of 2019.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • During this period, indicators of uncertainty in Spain's economic policy have fluctuated, but have remained above their historical averages.
  • BBVA Research's estimates indicate that the negative impact of this current uncertainty between between 0.2% and 0.3% percentage points in annual GDP growth, although it has been higher in previous quarters.
  • The cumulative impact after four years equates to a drop of around 1 percentage point in GDP and between 150,000 and 200,000 fewer jobs.

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