Published on Friday, October 30, 2020
U.S. Elections Chartbook. October 2020
Summary
Motivating disaffected voters in key swing states could determine the election. Preliminary data suggests Democrats have commanding lead in early mail-in voting. Available early in-person voting shows Republicans have an edge.
Key points
- Key points:
- According to our model, third-party forecasts and the latest odds, Democrats are expected to win White House, keep control of House and narrowly win back Senate
- Election outcome could increase financial market volatility albeit temporarily
- Secular trends more important for the economy than who controls the White House
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Global
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
- Country Risk
Documents and files
Authors
AC
Adrian Casillas
NK
Nathaniel Karp
BN
Boyd Nash-Stacey
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