Published on Thursday, November 24, 2022

US | A light at the end of the still-long tunnel of inflation

Just over a year ago, it was still common to hear the argument that the inflationary pressures that emerged globally from the first quarter of 2021 were due to the concurrence of several factors that, sooner rather than later, would prove to have a transitory effect on prices.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • After several months of disappointing reports, the BLS announced two weeks ago that October inflation in the United States was lower than in the previous month and than expected by the consensus of analysts.
  • It is the first time in the current inflationary cycle that a deceleration of more than two decimals in headline inflation is accompanied by a deceleration in core inflation.
  • This filled financial markets with optimism. Just as time was in charge of resolving the debate on the transience of inflation, time will tell us if these bursts of optimism are justified.
  • The current commitment of policymakers to fighting inflation means that a return to price stability will most likely happen eventually, but it will take some time.
  • In any case, the future of the economy in the coming months will continue to be shrouded in high uncertainty.

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