Published on Thursday, June 6, 2019

What is the cyclical position of the Spanish economy?

Over the last few months, there has been an interesting debate on the cyclical position of the Spanish economy, its potential growth and the output gap.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • The underlying question is whether current growth rates are sustainable and how long this can continue without generating imbalances that must be corrected in the future.
  • With a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 14.1% in the first quarter of 2019, the quality of growth of the Spanish economy and the economic policy implications would be very different if the equilibrium unemployment were 16% or 12%.


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