Colombia | GDP 2025: a demand-led recovery

Summary

Colombia’s GDP rose 2.6% in 2025 in a domestic-demand rebound. Final consumption grew 4.2%, while investment was uneven—equipment surged but construction fell. Net exports subtracted as imports (+8.4%) outpaced exports (+1.8%).

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP expanded 2.6% in 2025, accelerating from 1.5% in 2024 and 0.8% in 2023, in a recovery primarily driven by domestic demand. The report notes that growth moved closer to recent estimates of potential output growth (around 2.5% per year). On the supply side, expansion was concentrated in services, whereas mining (-6.2%) and construction (-2.8%) remained key drags, reinforcing a widening gap between demand growth and domestic productive capacity.
• The composition was markedly consumption-intensive: final consumption rose 4.2%, with households at 3.6% and government at 7.1%. The document emphasizes that the spending mix is consistent with an upswing, as durables and semi-durables—more cycle-sensitive items—outperformed.
• Investment improved only partially and remained uneven. Machinery and equipment rebounded by 9.0% in 2025, while construction contracted (-4.4%), keeping total investment below the levels observed during the previous decade and limiting the pace of capital deepening. At the margin, 4Q25 showed a sequential slowdown (GDP 0.1% q/q sa), largely reflecting weak capital formation.
• The external sector subtracted from growth: imports increased 8.4%, far outpacing exports (1.8%). The report frames this gap as evidence of higher import leakage and a growth pattern more reliant on domestic demand.
• For 2026, BBVA Research projects 2.8% growth, stronger in 1H and moderating in 2H amid inflation and tight financial conditions, with a gradual contribution from construction (civil works and non-subsidized housing) and risks linked to uncertainty and the electoral cycle.

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