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Thursday, July 25, 2019

ECB: Determination to act after holidays

The ECB kept rates unchanged but reintroduced the easing bias on rates, requested studies on further measures and, importantly, started talking about a symmetric inflation aim.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Draghi is worried about inflation and the macro outlook of manufacturing
  • We expect a change in forward guidance, lower depo rates and a tiered depo system in September
  • The probability of further QE has increased, but we still think the ECB will not adopt it yet

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