Published on Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. October 18, 2023

Following the Hamas-Israel attack, BBVA's Geopolitical Sentiment indexes deteriorated, impacting the Middle East as well as the West. As tension rises, the protest index for the Middle East and Europe show higher levels, while the Economic Political Uncertainty index remains neutral.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Many countries included in our Big Data Geopolitical Sentiment indexes have jumped to the high-risk area, and even at extreme levels, as the global and local news have spread across the board.
  • Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt: These countries jumped to the high-risk area as the increasing coverage and very negative sentiment deteriorated their geopolitical risk indexes during the week.
  • European Countries: Some of the European countries' indexes of geopolitical risk sentiment reacted to the Middle East tensions as they tried to mediate in the conflict such as Türkiye, which defends the creation of a Palestinian State, or took a clear posture with Israel, such as Italy and the United Kingdom. Spain and France have not been an exception and their indexes also entered in the risk area.
  • Other countries: The geopolitical tensions have been perceived also by other countries such as Argentina (the Argentinian community in Israel is near 100k people) and Colombia, which joined Brazil in the high-risk sentiment area. In Asia, China and Taiwan remain neutral while Australia entered in the risk area.
  • Global uncertainty: The situation remains risky, extreme in some countries with the potential to escalate. Yesterday's deadly attack on a Gaza hospital reflects the gravity of the situation and could be a turning point in the conflict, amid cross-accusations from both parties. This event greatly complicates diplomatic efforts to stop the ongoing humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. President Biden is already there, but he won't be able to meet with leaders of Muslim-majority countries in the region.

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