Global | Chartbook of International Commerce. December 2025

Summary

International trade continues to perform solidly despite rising protectionism. While U.S. tariffs have moderated following recent agreements and exemptions, they remain elevated and global trade imbalances persist. This points to short-term resilience, but with meaningful risks of greater fragmentation over the medium term.

Key points

• Key points:
• The recent easing of U.S. tariffs has been partial: tariff levels remain high, reflecting changes in trade composition rather than a substantive liberalization.
• The U.S., China and the Eurozone are offsetting weaker bilateral trade by strengthening ties with third markets. While this supports global trade volumes, it also increases costs and supply chain complexity.
• The large U.S. trade deficit and China’s expanding surplus sustain the risk of further protectionist measures in an environment of prolonged uncertainty.

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