Global | International trade, one year after the tariff shock

Summary

Global trade has shown resilience following the increase in U.S. tariffs, avoiding a contraction despite a more protectionist environment, supported by the reconfiguration of trade flows, the boost from artificial intelligence, and temporary factors such as frontloaded purchases.

Key points

• Key points:
• Tariffs have pushed up inflation in the U.S., slowed the monetary easing cycle, and moderated growth, while also reducing direct trade with China and redirecting flows toward countries such as Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan.
• China has offset the decline in bilateral trade with the U.S. by increasing exports to third markets and through trade triangulation.
• Protectionism is set to persist as a structural policy tool, and its effects—although gradual—could intensify over time, without having reduced the external deficit or boosted employment in the U.S.

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