Publications

We estimate the impact of the 2025 U.S. tariff increases by comparing sector- and country-level U.S. imports before and after their implementation, finding that exports to the United States declined by about 2% for every percentage-point increase in the tariff rate.

Global trade has shown resilience following the increase in U.S. tariffs, avoiding a contraction despite a more protectionist environment, supported by the reconfiguration of trade flows, the boost from artificial intelligence, and temporary factors such as frontloaded purchases.

This presentation reviews recent events related to the global economy, as well as forecasts focusing on Mexico, highlighting the most likely scenario, which is greater integration with the US.

The tariff hikes being pushed through by the United States since the start of Donald Trump's second term are genuinely unprecedented. Not in the last century have we witnessed such a sudden and erratic shift in trade policiy implemented within such a short space of time.

In the 21st century, history is again being challenged by a wave of protectionism from the United States. President Donald Trump has just announced a barrage of tariffs that marks the country's biggest protectionist offensive in almost a century.

Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has been ramping up his protectionist agenda, reigniting uncertainty over trade and global growth. The increase in tariffs on imports of goods not only affects the US economy, but its repercussions extend worldwide.

At the end of the Second World War a consensus was forged between the advanced economies of the world, led by the U.S., around the idea of seeking a world without barriers to trade in goods and services and capital flows. Thus, for decades, the United States adopted a policy of trade opening and promotion of global trade.