Published on Friday, December 16, 2022 | Updated on Friday, December 30, 2022

Mexico Economic Outlook. December 2022

We expect lower growth and inflation in 2023. GDP would grow 3.0% in 2022 driven by the manufacturing sector. We stick to our 0.6% GDP growth forecast for 2023 but with an upward bias considering the 3Q22 data, INEGI’s revisions, and the effect of nearshoring.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • The labor market has shown strength with positive effects on the real wage bill; we expect a lower job creation in 2023.
  • It is very likely that the public deficit will be at least 3.6% in 2023 given the pressures on public spending and lower-than-programmed tax revenues.
  • November will mark the peak of core inflation; headline inflation is already declining. We are more optimistic than the consensus for 2023.
  • We anticipate that Banxico will decouple from the Fed in 2023; we expect the start of a rate cut cycle by the third quarter of next year.
  • We expect the exchange rate will be 19.6 pesos per dollar by December 2022 and 20.1 pesos per dollar by the end of 2023.

Documents to download



New comment

Be the first to add a comment.

Load more

You may also be interested in