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Published on Thursday, May 15, 2025 | Updated on Friday, May 16, 2025

Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook. First Half 2025

Summary

At the end of 2024, the Mexican economy's GDP grew by 1.5%, primarily driven by the Services sector, which experienced a 2.3% increase. Notably, Professional Services, Transportation, and Retail emerged as the key sectors contributing significantly to this economic growth.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • The primary GDP declined by 2.3%, while the GDP of secondary activities remained nearly unchanged, with a slight increase of 0.2%.
  • The states with the most significant growth were Mexico City (1.8%), Baja California Sur (1.5%), and Quintana Roo (1.4%), driven by Trade and Tourism. Completing flagship projects such as the Mayan Train and "Dos Bocas" refinery impacted employment and public jobs in southern states.
  • We estimate a supply network to analyze the economic relationship between Nuevo León and Texas. In this network, the Transportation Equipment sector leads in intermediate demand and serves as a central hub for industrial activity. It effectively integrates basic, heavy, and technological industries.
  • The Mexican automotive sector experienced another positive year in 2024. The GDP of Transportation Equipment grew by 1.3%, and vehicle production increased by 5.6% annually.
  • The rollout of 5G is likely to attract foreign direct investment in key sectors like automotive, electronics, and data centers. A comprehensive strategy that includes radio spectrum auctions, promoting private networks, and expanding energy and telecommunications infrastructure is essential.

Geographies

Documents and files

Presentation (PDF)

Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook. First Half 2025

Spanish - May 15, 2025

Report (PDF)

Mexico | Regional Sectoral Outlook. First Half 2025

Spanish - May 15, 2025

Authors

DL
Diego López BBVA Research - Senior Economist
CS
Carlos Serrano BBVA Research - Chief Economist
SV
Samuel Vázquez BBVA Research - Principal Economist
ME
Mauricio Escalera Franco BBVA Research - Senior Economist
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