Peru | Positive Growth Surprise at the End of 2025

Summary

GDP grew 3.8% in December 2025, exceeding expectations and bringing full-year growth to 3.4%. The strength of the non-primary component (construction and trade) offset the weakness in the primary sector, which was affected by lower mining output.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP grew 3.8% year-on-year in December 2025, above the consensus forecast (2.8%). In seasonally adjusted terms, activity expanded 0.56% compared to November.
• Non-primary component leads growth: December’s expansion was driven by the strong performance of the non-primary component (+4.8%), with construction (+12.0%), non-primary manufacturing (+6.0%), and trade (around 5%) standing out, reflecting stronger domestic demand momentum.
• Primary component weakness: Primary GDP contracted by 0.4%, though less sharply than in November. Metallic mining declined due to lower ore grades, while the agricultural sector experienced a recovery.
• Full-year 2025 balance: The economy grew 3.4% in 2025 (3.5% in 2024). The moderation of the primary component—particularly mining and fishing—was offset by sustained growth in the non-primary sectors, amid a recovery in private spending and an improving labor market.
• Start of 2026: January indicators suggest that economic activity began the year with growth above 3.0%. The main driver remains private spending, supported by contained inflation, improving confidence, and stronger labor market conditions.

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