Peru | Strong expansion of primary GDP in October

Summary

In October, economic activity grew 3.6% year-on-year and year-to-date growth reached 3.4%. The primary sector stood out (7.8%), driven by mining and fishing, while non-primary activity slowed to 2.5% due to weaker manufacturing and construction.

Key points

• Key points:
• October: economic activity grew 3.6% year-on-year, in line with consensus expectations, with year-to-date growth at 3.4%, supported by the strong performance of the primary sector, driven by mining and fishing.
• November: available indicators point to a slight growth deceleration, with mixed signals in consumption and investment and weaker momentum on the supply side.
• 4Q25 and 2025: growth would be sustained at 3.2% in 4Q25, supported by private spending and pension fund withdrawals, though constrained by lower anchoveta landings; GDP growth in 2025 is projected at 3.3%.
• 1Q26: growth is projected at around 3.0%, supported by private consumption, though greater caution from the private sector is expected amid the electoral environment.

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