Spain | Advance of the Regional GDP of 2024

Summary

The advance of the regional GDP of 2024 published today by the INE is in line with the estimates of BBVA Research, which expected the growth to be led by Murcia and the island regions.

Key points

• Key points:
• The correlation between the advance data published by the INE and the BBVA Research estimate is high (0.7) and the variability similar (typical deviation between 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points).
• The exposure to service exports could be the justification for growth above the average of some communities. This is the case of the impact of tourism in economies such as the Canary Islands (4.4%) and the Balearic Islands (4.2%)
• Madrid and Catalonia (3.6% in both) also registered an increase in activity above the national average (3.5%), thanks also to the impact of exports of non-tourist services. For its part, in Murcia (4.5%) it could be the recovery of the agricultural sector, together with the good tone of consumption and exports of goods, which explains the strong increase in GDP.
• The good performance of goods exports in Galicia, La Rioja and Castilla y León would not have been sufficient to boost growth above the average predicted by BBVA Research's scenario.
• If the levels with respect to 2019 are taken into account, the information indicates that, at the end of 2024, the Balearic Islands, Madrid and the Canary Islands will lead the recovery of GDP after the pandemic. In terms of GDP per capita, the regions that show the best evolution in the last five years are Galicia, Madrid and the Basque Country, whose GDP per capita is more than 5 pp above the 2019 level.

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