Turkey | Annual GDP set to grow 7% in February

Summary

Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside by increasing 14.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs market expectation of 10.8% in December). We expect 2022 GDP growth to be 3.5%.

Key points

• Key points:
• Monthly IP rose by 1.6% mom, resulting in a 4.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in 4Q21 (vs 2.0% qoq in 3Q21).
• In 4Q21, consumer goods took the lead and was followed by intermediate goods and capital goods production, where both domestic demand and exporting sectors gave a balanced contribution.
• Being supported by exports and still continuing consumption, the deceleration in economic activity remains moderate despite the recent currency shock and energy shortages experienced in late January.
• Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly growth rate of near 9% for December (implying 2.5% qoq growth in 4Q21), and a deceleration with near 7% GDP growth for February (33% of information).

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