Turkey | Strong industrial production…before CVirus

Summary

Industrial Production (IP) in January grew by 7.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, lower than both the consensus (8.5%). We maintain our GDP forecast at 4%, with obvious risks on the downside depending on both the magnitude and the duration of the Cvirus shock in the economy and particularly in financial markets.

Key points

• Key points:
• The IP (seasonal and calendar adjusted) decreased by 0.2% mom on the back of the sharp decline in capital goods and durable consumption goods production.
• In sectorial detail, there was a broad based deterioration, which was led by the manufacturing sector and mining sector, contrary to the strong positive realizations seen in December
• Consumption continues to accelerate while investment expenditures display a sluggish recovery.
• We observe a rapid pattern of consumption (sharp decline in airline tickets and tourism related activities, compensated with medicine, food and online sales) to CVirus shock.
• While the current growth level at 8.1% constitutes a high base to face the crisis, we will wait to evaluate to revise our 4% GDP growth forecast for 2020.

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